Potential flips
NZ General Election 2026
Watch the coverage side by sideAll The Calls, RNZ, Stuff and TVNZ on one screen. Pick whose audio you hear.Open the quad box →Loading the count…
Loading the count…
Rehearsal
Show simulated callsSimulated count, network calls and projections, replaying official 2023 results on 2020 boundaries. Not live results.
72 electorates · north to south · 2023 is the notional result on the new boundaries where they changed
| Leading | Second | Party vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northland | NAT MCCALLUM 35.3% | LAB PRIME 22.6% | 4,212 | 12.7% | 73% | NAT 33.8% | NAT 13.3% |
| Whangārei | NAT RETI 48.1% | LAB WARREN-CLARK 22.1% | 5,691 | 26.0% | 51% | NAT 36.9% | NAT 26.5% |
| Auckland Central | GRN SWARBRICK 47.4% | NAT MURALIDHAR 37.1% | 2,071 | 10.2% | 58% | NAT 31.6% | GRN 11.2% |
| Kaipara ki Mahurangi | NAT PENK 57.7% | LAB WISHART 17.9% | 10,079 | 39.8% | 52% | NAT 46.7% | NAT 39.6% |
| Whangaparāoa | NAT MITCHELL 62.5% | LAB MULLER PALLARÈS 18.9% | 11,113 | 43.6% | 54% | NAT 53.2% | NAT 50.0% |
| East Coast Bays | NAT STANFORD 73.8% | LAB CHEN 16.7% | 13,489 | 57.1% | 61% | NAT 56.6% | NAT 52.6% |
| North Shore | NAT WATTS 64.0% | LAB HAMPTON 17.6% | 10,338 | 46.4% | 54% | NAT 49.7% | NAT 39.9% |
| Upper Harbour | NAT BREWER 54.1% | LAB WALTERS 23.9% | 7,464 | 30.2% | 61% | NAT 46.7% | NAT 27.5% |
| Northcote | NAT BIDOIS 56.6% | LAB HALBERT 27.8% | 7,303 | 28.8% | 66% | NAT 41.7% | NAT 24.2% |
| Te AtatūClose | LAB TWYFORD 38.5% | NAT NICHOLAS 38.3% | 30 | 0.1% | 59% | NAT 36.2% | LAB 0.4% |
| Tāmaki | ACT VAN VELDEN 43.5% | NAT O'CONNOR 32.8% | 3,205 | 10.7% | 72% | NAT 52.3% | ACT 10.1% |
| Mt AlbertClose | LAB WHITE 33.7% | NAT LEE 33.7% | 11 | 0.1% | 55% | NAT 30.3% | LAB 0.0% |
| Epsom | ACT SEYMOUR 45.6% | NAT GOLDSMITH 23.0% | 5,038 | 22.6% | 56% | NAT 48.5% | ACT 20.3% |
| Pakuranga | NAT BROWN 73.8% | LAB HENRY 17.8% | 15,050 | 56.0% | 73% | NAT 56.2% | NAT 51.2% |
| Kelston | LAB SEPULONI 45.1% | NAT SCHAUMKEL 29.0% | 2,757 | 16.1% | 52% | LAB 37.8% | LAB 13.3% |
| Maungakiekie | NAT FLEMING 47.1% | LAB RADHAKRISHNAN 35.4% | 3,221 | 11.7% | 78% | NAT 41.1% | NAT 13.0% |
| Mt Roskill | NAT CHEUNG 43.7% | LAB WOOD 38.6% | 819 | 5.0% | 45% | NAT 41.0% | NAT 4.3% |
| New LynnClosePotential flip | LAB RUSSELL 38.1% | NAT GARCIA 37.8% | 48 | 0.3% | 43% | NAT 34.1% | NAT 2.5% |
| Botany | NAT LUXON 69.8% | LAB SINGH 19.5% | 10,350 | 50.3% | 55% | NAT 56.0% | NAT 43.9% |
| Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | LAB SALESA 52.9% | NAT RANDHAWA 23.5% | 5,374 | 29.4% | 61% | LAB 55.1% | LAB 26.8% |
| Māngere | LAB SOSENE 58.9% | NAT BOURKE 20.0% | 9,852 | 38.9% | 87% | LAB 62.2% | LAB 40.4% |
| Takanini | NAT NAKHLE 56.8% | LAB LEAVASA 32.8% | 5,958 | 24.0% | 63% | NAT 51.9% | NAT 22.4% |
| Manurewa | LAB WILLIAMS 57.7% | NAT KILARI 29.8% | 4,467 | 27.9% | 55% | LAB 56.3% | LAB 24.5% |
| Papakura | NAT COLLINS 58.9% | LAB KANONGATA'A 24.2% | 8,831 | 34.7% | 61% | NAT 50.9% | NAT 32.4% |
| Coromandel | NAT SIMPSON 55.5% | LAB RILEY 14.7% | 11,493 | 40.8% | 60% | NAT 42.7% | NAT 37.1% |
| Port Waikato | No contest | — | |||||
| Waikato | NAT VAN DE MOLEN 61.6% | LAB TOKO 23.7% | 11,366 | 37.8% | 71% | NAT 47.4% | NAT 43.5% |
| Tauranga | NAT UFFINDELL 47.1% | LAB TINETTI 21.8% | 5,150 | 25.3% | 49% | NAT 45.6% | NAT 22.6% |
| Hamilton East | NAT HAMILTON 49.4% | LAB DANSEY 32.7% | 2,683 | 16.7% | 43% | NAT 39.0% | NAT 13.5% |
| Hamilton West | NAT POTAKA 45.4% | LAB WILLIAMSON 29.7% | 3,533 | 15.7% | 59% | NAT 40.0% | NAT 17.0% |
| Bay of Plenty | NAT RUTHERFORD 51.2% | LAB TAIKATO 18.0% | 6,332 | 33.2% | 42% | NAT 46.4% | NAT 34.1% |
| East Coast | NAT KIRKPATRICK 42.7% | LAB COFFEY 34.4% | 2,447 | 8.3% | 74% | NAT 35.7% | NAT 8.0% |
| Rotorua | NAT MCCLAY 54.6% | LAB SANDFORD 26.9% | 5,512 | 27.7% | 54% | NAT 37.7% | NAT 24.4% |
| Taranaki-King Country | NAT KURIGER 62.8% | LAB ROBERTS 24.0% | 12,375 | 38.9% | 79% | NAT 46.2% | NAT 35.4% |
| Taupō | NAT UPSTON 57.9% | LAB AL-BUSTANJI 18.4% | 12,362 | 39.5% | 72% | NAT 44.6% | NAT 37.9% |
| Napier | NAT NIMON 53.8% | LAB HUTCHINSON 30.0% | 7,388 | 23.9% | 77% | NAT 39.9% | NAT 22.1% |
| New Plymouth | NAT MACLEOD 51.5% | LAB BENNETT 36.9% | 3,785 | 14.6% | 60% | NAT 39.6% | NAT 16.3% |
| Whanganui | NAT BATES 48.0% | LAB LEWIS 32.2% | 4,173 | 15.9% | 67% | NAT 37.1% | NAT 14.0% |
| Rangitīkei | NAT REDMAYNE 48.5% | LAB BUTT 20.2% | 7,176 | 28.2% | 62% | NAT 40.2% | NAT 23.9% |
| Tukituki | NAT WEDD 51.2% | LAB LORCK 31.2% | 4,693 | 20.0% | 57% | NAT 41.4% | NAT 24.6% |
| Palmerston North | LAB UTIKERE 42.6% | NAT BANSAL 34.9% | 1,616 | 7.6% | 59% | NAT 32.8% | LAB 8.7% |
| Ōtaki | NAT COSTLEY 49.2% | LAB NGOBI 37.0% | 2,677 | 12.2% | 50% | NAT 35.7% | NAT 14.2% |
| Wairarapa | NAT BUTTERICK 46.2% | LAB MCANULTY 38.8% | 1,781 | 7.4% | 54% | NAT 37.1% | NAT 6.3% |
| Mana | LAB EDMONDS 49.9% | NAT HUGHES 29.6% | 3,548 | 20.3% | 42% | LAB 41.0% | LAB 17.6% |
| Remutaka | LAB HIPKINS 53.1% | NAT CHATTERTON 32.9% | 4,895 | 20.2% | 58% | LAB 40.2% | LAB 21.2% |
| Ōhāriu | LAB O'CONNOR 41.4% | NAT WILLIS 37.9% | 838 | 3.5% | 56% | NAT 33.0% | LAB 3.0% |
| NelsonClose | LAB BOYACK 41.1% | NAT CAMERON 41.0% | 17 | 0.1% | 63% | NAT 32.2% | LAB 0.1% |
| Wellington Central | GRN PAUL 40.1% | LAB OMER 27.6% | 3,508 | 12.5% | 62% | GRN 34.4% | GRN 13.3% |
| Hutt South | NAT BISHOP 44.4% | LAB ANDERSEN 41.2% | 904 | 3.2% | 66% | NAT 34.3% | NAT 3.1% |
| Kaikōura | NAT SMITH 46.5% | LAB DEWHIRST 25.2% | 3,861 | 21.3% | 43% | NAT 38.8% | NAT 27.2% |
| West Coast-TasmanClose | NAT PUGH 30.6% | LAB O'CONNOR 30.5% | 31 | 0.1% | 59% | NAT 32.3% | NAT 2.4% |
| Waimakariri | NAT DOOCEY 56.0% | LAB ROSEWARNE 31.4% | 6,111 | 24.6% | 53% | NAT 40.1% | NAT 28.0% |
| Selwyn | NAT GRIGG 64.6% | LAB JONES 25.1% | 14,802 | 39.5% | 78% | NAT 47.3% | NAT 41.1% |
| Christchurch East | LAB DAVIDSON 38.7% | NAT STOCK 33.3% | 1,193 | 5.5% | 56% | LAB 34.8% | LAB 6.2% |
| Ilam | NAT CAMPBELL 44.2% | TOP MANJI 25.3% | 5,793 | 18.9% | 72% | NAT 42.4% | NAT 18.4% |
| Christchurch Central | LAB WEBB 39.8% | NAT STEPHENS 34.9% | 1,095 | 4.9% | 57% | LAB 30.8% | LAB 4.7% |
| Wigram | LAB WOODS 41.5% | NAT SUMMERFIELD 38.2% | 816 | 3.2% | 67% | NAT 33.1% | LAB 3.1% |
| Rangitata | NAT MEAGER 54.7% | LAB LUXTON 31.3% | 3,380 | 23.4% | 36% | NAT 43.1% | NAT 26.8% |
| Banks PeninsulaClose | NAT WEENINK 36.2% | LAB MCLELLAN 35.4% | 288 | 0.8% | 70% | NAT 31.6% | NAT 0.8% |
| Rongotai | GRN GENTER 39.2% | LAB FITZSIMONS 32.4% | 1,750 | 6.8% | 61% | LAB 33.5% | GRN 6.4% |
| Waitaki | NAT ANDERSON 53.6% | LAB REILLE 21.4% | 7,904 | 32.3% | 55% | NAT 40.9% | NAT 27.5% |
| Southland | NAT MOONEY 60.6% | LAB MCCALLUM 13.6% | 13,243 | 47.0% | 71% | NAT 45.0% | NAT 43.6% |
| Dunedin | LAB BROOKING 41.1% | NAT WOODHOUSE 21.2% | 5,272 | 20.0% | 63% | LAB 33.2% | LAB 18.9% |
| TaieriClosePotential flip | NAT FRENCH 37.7% | LAB LEARY 37.6% | 29 | 0.1% | 49% | LAB 34.7% | LAB 3.4% |
| Invercargill | NAT SIMMONDS 53.5% | LAB CRAIG 31.3% | 4,722 | 22.2% | 57% | NAT 39.6% | NAT 26.4% |
| Te Tai TokerauClose | TPM KAPA-KINGI 36.8% | LAB DAVIS 36.4% | 44 | 0.3% | 48% | LAB 47.4% | TPM 1.9% |
| Tāmaki MakaurauClose | TPM KEMP 39.3% | LAB HENARE 39.1% | 20 | 0.2% | 41% | LAB 45.0% | TPM 0.2% |
| Hauraki-Waikato | TPM MAIPI-CLARKE 51.6% | LAB MAHUTA 40.0% | 1,803 | 11.6% | 62% | LAB 47.5% | TPM 11.6% |
| Waiariki | TPM WAITITI 70.3% | LAB BOYNTON 23.3% | 8,026 | 46.9% | 59% | LAB 46.4% | TPM 54.9% |
| Te Tai Hauāuru | TPM NGAREWA-PACKER 67.4% | LAB PEKE-MASON 22.2% | 6,084 | 45.2% | 52% | LAB 41.4% | TPM 35.1% |
| Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | LAB TANGAERE-MANUEL 53.5% | TPM WHAITIRI 40.8% | 1,893 | 12.7% | 57% | LAB 55.6% | LAB 11.0% |
| Te Tai Tonga | TPM FERRIS 46.7% | LAB TIRIKATENE 36.6% | 1,757 | 10.2% | 63% | LAB 38.0% | TPM 10.3% |