2026 midterm race calls

Who called each Senate, Governor and key House race, and when — AP, the New York Times, ABC, NBC, MS NOW, CNN, Fox and DDHQ side by side. 66 of 71 races here have at least one call.

CNN254163
ABC252161
AP252161
DDHQDecision Desk252160
FoxFox News252161
MS NOW252161
NBC252162
NYTNY Times252161

All House races

NZ election night

Nationwide 85% counted · 10:51 PM

Potential flips

Henderson: Labour ahead of the 2023 winner by 5,222 votes

Henderson 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)
- LAB TWYFORD 50.4%11,476
- NAT NICHOLAS 27.4%6,254
LAB leads by 5,222 · 66% counted
Tāmaki 2023: ACT (notional, boundary change)
- NAT MURALIDHAR 43.7%14,603
- LAB HARRIS 27.3%9,142
NAT leads by 5,461 · 83% counted
Te Tai Tonga 2023: TPM (notional, boundary change)
- LAB RAMSDEN 33.3%8,334
- GRN TE MORENGA 22.5%5,629
LAB leads by 2,705 · 96% counted

Potential flips: 10 potential flips
Electorate	Leading · second	Lead	Counted
Wellington North 2023: LAB (notional, boundary change)	GRN PAUL 40.1%LAB VERRALL 31.9%	3,171	86%
Wigram 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB YANZICK 44.6%NAT SUMMERFIELD 39.0%	1,785	87%
Banks Peninsula 2023: NAT	LAB MCLELLAN 43.3%NAT WEENINK 37.9%	2,281	87%
Nelson 2023: LAB	NAT CAMERON 44.2%LAB BOYACK 41.0%	1,210	100%
Hutt South 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB ANDERSEN 45.6%NAT BISHOP 42.9%	986	88%
Wairarapa Close2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB MCANULTY 44.1%NAT BUTTERICK 42.9%	401	75%
Wellington Bays Close2023: GRN (notional, boundary change)	LAB RENNEY 37.6%GRN GENTER 37.3%	121	91%

Close races

Hamilton East separated by 81 votes

Hamilton East
- NAT HAMILTON 45.1%13,130
- LAB DANSEY 44.8%13,049
NAT leads by 81 · 92% counted
Wellington Bays 2023: GRN (notional, boundary change)
- LAB RENNEY 37.6%14,573
- GRN GENTER 37.3%14,452
LAB leads by 121 · 91% counted
Mt Roskill
- NAT CHEUNG 45.0%11,712
- LAB WOOD 44.3%11,515
NAT leads by 197 · 68% counted

Close races: Closest first · 5 close
Electorate	Leading · second	Lead	Counted
Wairarapa 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB MCANULTY 44.1%NAT BUTTERICK 42.9%	401	75%
Te Tai Tokerau	TPM EDWARDS 30.5%GRN LYNDON 28.9%	403	83%
Hutt South 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB ANDERSEN 45.6%NAT BISHOP 42.9%	986	88%
Whangārei	NAT BUDD 40.3%LAB PAYINDA 37.7%	1,005	91%
Nelson 2023: LAB	NAT CAMERON 44.2%LAB BOYACK 41.0%	1,210	100%
Takanini	NAT NAKHLE 47.9%LAB SINGH 42.3%	1,245	75%
Wigram 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB YANZICK 44.6%NAT SUMMERFIELD 39.0%	1,785	87%

Split vote

Hauraki-Waikato: candidate vote Te Pāti Māori, party vote Labour by 45.0 pts

Hauraki-Waikato
- TPM MAIPI-CLARKE 68.5%16,897
- LAB KIRIONA 28.9%7,127
Party vote LAB 50.5% · 45.0 pts
TPM leads by 9,770 · 88% counted
Tāmaki Makaurau
- TPM KAIPARA 54.4%11,308
- LAB LEONI 24.1%5,005
Party vote LAB 48.0% · 42.2 pts
TPM leads by 6,303 · 75% counted
Te Tai Hauāuru
- TPM NGAREWA-PACKER 55.4%14,038
- LAB KĀTENE 40.6%10,279
Party vote LAB 46.6% · 40.7 pts
TPM leads by 3,759 · 92% counted

Electorates where the leading candidate’s party is not leading the party vote
Electorate	Candidate vote leader	Party vote leader	Gap
Te Tai Tokerau	TPM EDWARDS 30.5%	LAB 44.3%	39.9 pts
Waiariki	TPM WAITITI 45.0%	LAB 46.5%	39.6 pts
Epsom	ACT SEYMOUR 37.2%	NAT 43.1%	27.2 pts
Auckland Central	GRN SWARBRICK 46.6%	NAT 26.6%	6.3 pts
Kapiti	NAT COSTLEY 47.3%	LAB 31.3%	3.0 pts
Hamilton West	NAT POTAKA 42.6%	LAB 32.5%	3.0 pts
Wellington North	GRN PAUL 40.1%	LAB 30.4%	2.6 pts

Candidate vote vs party vote

National’s candidates run its party vote by 12.3 pts

Nationwide, counted so far: candidate vote and party vote by party
Party	Candidate vote	Party vote	Gap
National	41.7%	29.4%	+12.3
Labour	33.6%	29.1%	+4.5
Green	8.9%	13.3%	−4.5
ACT	3.8%	11.0%	−7.3
NZ First	5.0%	9.8%	−4.8
Te Pāti Māori	3.4%	0.6%	+2.8

Votes against 2023

Palmerston North has counted 99% of its 2023 party vote

Party votes counted tonight against the 2023 party vote, by electorate
Electorate	Tonight	2023	Share of 2023	Counted
Palmerston NorthBoundary change	35,635	36,078	99%	97%
Hauraki-Waikato	24,844	26,252	95%	88%
Te Tai Hauāuru	25,364	27,184	93%	92%
KapitiBoundary change	41,459	44,549	93%	87%
Waiariki	27,643	30,051	92%	90%
Ikaroa-RāwhitiBoundary change	24,672	26,965	91%	83%
Wellington BaysBoundary change	38,644	42,821	90%	91%
Te Tai TongaBoundary change	25,469	28,409	90%	96%
Waimakariri	41,945	46,863	90%	87%
Te Tai Tokerau	25,721	28,883	89%	83%

Six to watch

Wellington Bays 2023: GRN (notional, boundary change)
- LAB RENNEY 37.6%14,573
- GRN GENTER 37.3%14,452
Close LAB leads by 121 · 91% counted
Wairarapa 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)
- LAB MCANULTY 44.1%14,369
- NAT BUTTERICK 42.9%13,968
Close LAB leads by 401 · 75% counted
Hutt South 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)
- LAB ANDERSEN 45.6%16,756
- NAT BISHOP 42.9%15,770
LAB leads by 986 · 88% counted
Nelson 2023: LAB
- NAT CAMERON 44.2%16,846
- LAB BOYACK 41.0%15,636
NAT leads by 1,210 · 100% counted
Wigram 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)
- LAB YANZICK 44.6%14,118
- NAT SUMMERFIELD 39.0%12,333
LAB leads by 1,785 · 87% counted
Banks Peninsula 2023: NAT
- LAB MCLELLAN 43.3%18,395
- NAT WEENINK 37.9%16,114
LAB leads by 2,281 · 87% counted

All 9 election-night cards

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Tracking the Calls

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Latest calls

9:05 PM EST
- California House District 14
  - calls Aisha Wahab (D)
8:47 PM EST
- California House District 14
  - and call Aisha Wahab (D)
8:46 PM EST
- California House District 14
  - , and call Aisha Wahab (D)
8:45 PM EST
- California House District 14
  - calls Aisha Wahab (D)
8:44 PM EST
- California House District 14
  - calls Aisha Wahab (D)
7:23 PM EST
- South Carolina House District 1
  - calls Nancy Lacore (D)
7:20 PM EST
- South Carolina House District 1
  - calls Nancy Lacore (D)
6:52 PM EST
- South Carolina House District 1
  - calls Nancy Lacore (D)
6:51 PM EST
- South Carolina House District 1
  - , and call Nancy Lacore (D)
6:12 PM EST
- Utah House District 4
  - calls Mike Kennedy (R)
6:11 PM EST
- South Carolina House District 1
  - calls Nancy Lacore (D)
4:35 PM EST
- North Carolina House District 8
  - and call Mark Harris (R)
4:34 PM EST
- North Carolina House District 8
  - and call Mark Harris (R)

Full Call Log

Races to watch

Senate

Senate races to watch: call status by source
Race	AP	NYT	ABC	NBC	MS NOW	CNN	Fox	DDHQ
Georgia Senate
South Carolina Senate
North Carolina Senate
Ohio Senate Special
Florida Senate Special
Maine Senate
New Hampshire Senate
Iowa Senate
Kansas Senate
Michigan Senate
Minnesota Senate
Nebraska Senate
Texas Senate
Alaska Senate

Governor

Governor races to watch: call status by source
Race	AP	NYT	ABC	NBC	MS NOW	CNN	Fox	DDHQ
Georgia Governor
Ohio Governor
Florida Governor
Arizona Governor
Iowa Governor
Kansas Governor
Michigan Governor
Texas Governor
Wisconsin Governor
Nevada Governor
Oregon Governor
Alaska Governor

House

House races to watch: call status by source
Race	AP	NYT	ABC	NBC	MS NOW	CNN	Fox	DDHQ
Alabama 1 seat
District 2
Arizona 2 seats
District 1
District 6
California 1 seat
District 22
Colorado 2 seats
District 5
District 8
Florida 5 seats
District 13
District 14
District 22
District 25
District 27
Iowa 3 seats
District 1
District 2
District 3
Kentucky 1 seat
District 6
Maine 1 seat
District 2
Michigan 3 seats
District 4
District 7
District 10
Minnesota 1 seat
District 1
Missouri 1 seat
District 2
Montana 1 seat
District 1
New Jersey 1 seat
District 7
New Mexico 1 seat
District 2
New York 2 seats
District 17
District 21
North Carolina 2 seats
District 1
District 11
Ohio 2 seats
District 7
District 9
Pennsylvania 4 seats
District 1
District 7
District 8
District 10
South Carolina 1 seat
District 1
Texas 4 seats
District 15
District 28
District 34
District 35
Virginia 3 seats
District 1
District 2
District 5
Washington 1 seat
District 3
Wisconsin 2 seats
District 1
District 3

2026 midterm race calls

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Races to watch

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