NZ General Election 2026

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Potential flips

Henderson: Labour ahead of the 2023 winner by 5,222 votes

Henderson 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)
- LAB TWYFORD 50.4%11,476
- NAT NICHOLAS 27.4%6,254
LAB leads by 5,222 · 66% counted
Tāmaki 2023: ACT (notional, boundary change)
- NAT MURALIDHAR 43.7%14,603
- LAB HARRIS 27.3%9,142
NAT leads by 5,461 · 83% counted
Te Tai Tonga 2023: TPM (notional, boundary change)
- LAB RAMSDEN 33.3%8,334
- GRN TE MORENGA 22.5%5,629
LAB leads by 2,705 · 96% counted

Potential flips: 10 potential flips
Electorate	Leading · second	Lead	Counted
Wellington North 2023: LAB (notional, boundary change)	GRN PAUL 40.1%LAB VERRALL 31.9%	3,171	86%
Wigram 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB YANZICK 44.6%NAT SUMMERFIELD 39.0%	1,785	87%
Banks Peninsula 2023: NAT	LAB MCLELLAN 43.3%NAT WEENINK 37.9%	2,281	87%
Nelson 2023: LAB	NAT CAMERON 44.2%LAB BOYACK 41.0%	1,210	100%
Hutt South 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB ANDERSEN 45.6%NAT BISHOP 42.9%	986	88%
Wairarapa Close2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB MCANULTY 44.1%NAT BUTTERICK 42.9%	401	75%
Wellington Bays Close2023: GRN (notional, boundary change)	LAB RENNEY 37.6%GRN GENTER 37.3%	121	91%

Every electorate

71 electorates · north to south · 2023 is the notional result on the new boundaries where they changed

Every electorate: who leads now, lead, counted, party-vote leader and 2023 holder
	Leading	Second				Party vote
Northland	NAT MCCALLUM 45.3%	LAB LATIMER 22.4%	7,206	23.0%	78%	NAT 30.3%	NAT 12.4%Boundary change
Whangārei	NAT BUDD 40.3%	LAB PAYINDA 37.7%	1,005	2.7%	91%	NAT 30.5%	NAT 27.4%Boundary change
Auckland Central	GRN SWARBRICK 46.6%	NAT KINSER 37.5%	2,486	9.1%	67%	NAT 26.6%	GRN 6.4%Boundary change
Kaipara ki Mahurangi	NAT ROWE 50.4%	LAB SWINBURN 17.7%	10,615	32.7%	82%	NAT 37.2%	NAT 41.0%Boundary change
Whangaparāoa	NAT MITCHELL 67.2%	LAB MULLER PALLARÈS 25.4%	15,275	41.8%	84%	NAT 40.6%	NAT 50.5%Boundary change
East Coast Bays	NAT STANFORD 65.1%	LAB MCENROE 20.0%	12,481	45.1%	77%	NAT 44.6%	NAT 53.1%Boundary change
North Shore	NAT WATTS 57.5%	LAB COLLINS 25.0%	10,175	32.5%	80%	NAT 40.0%	NAT 40.3%Boundary change
Upper Harbour	NAT BREWER 54.1%	LAB BARAL 25.7%	7,266	28.4%	71%	NAT 40.6%	NAT 37.0%Boundary change
Northcote	NAT BIDOIS 47.5%	LAB HALBERT 39.3%	2,459	8.2%	74%	NAT 31.7%	NAT 23.7%Boundary change
HendersonPotential flip	LAB TWYFORD 50.4%	NAT NICHOLAS 27.4%	5,222	22.9%	66%	LAB 44.0%	NAT 2.4%Boundary change
TāmakiPotential flip	NAT MURALIDHAR 43.7%	LAB HARRIS 27.3%	5,461	16.3%	83%	NAT 41.8%	ACT 9.1%Boundary change
Glendene	LAB SEPULONI 49.4%	NAT KUMAR 25.3%	6,065	24.1%	65%	LAB 42.1%	LAB 7.5%Boundary change
Epsom	ACT SEYMOUR 37.2%	NAT GOLDSMITH 30.6%	1,844	6.6%	73%	NAT 43.1%	ACT 16.9%Boundary change
Mt Albert	LAB WHITE 44.2%	NAT LEE 27.9%	3,061	16.3%	59%	LAB 32.0%	LAB 3.7%Boundary change
Pakuranga	NAT BROWN 67.1%	LAB MATTHEWS 23.6%	13,026	43.5%	82%	NAT 46.9%	NAT 52.7%Boundary change
Maungakiekie	NAT FLEMING 46.6%	LAB RADHAKRISHNAN 37.1%	2,847	9.5%	80%	LAB 32.3%	NAT 11.5%Boundary change
Botany	NAT LUXON 66.2%	LAB LEAVASA 24.2%	12,498	42.0%	82%	NAT 51.3%	NAT 53.9%Boundary change
Mt RoskillClose	NAT CHEUNG 45.0%	LAB WOOD 44.3%	197	0.8%	68%	LAB 35.3%	NAT 9.2%Boundary change
Ōtāhuhu	LAB SALESA 67.6%	NAT ARYA 16.2%	8,595	51.4%	73%	LAB 63.3%	LAB 28.6%Boundary change
Waitākere	LAB WALTERS 40.3%	NAT LOHENI 32.1%	2,408	8.2%	63%	LAB 31.2%	LAB 0.9%Boundary change
Coromandel	NAT SIMPSON 54.9%	LAB BENNETT 17.7%	14,853	37.2%	96%	NAT 34.6%	NAT 37.1%
Māngere	LAB SOSENE 63.9%	NAT BOURKE 12.2%	11,266	51.6%	87%	LAB 64.3%	LAB 40.7%Boundary change
Takanini	NAT NAKHLE 47.9%	LAB SINGH 42.3%	1,245	5.6%	75%	NAT 37.4%	NAT 24.1%Boundary change
Manurewa	LAB WILLIAMS 69.5%	NAT MAJEED 16.6%	7,524	52.9%	61%	LAB 59.6%	LAB 24.4%Boundary change
Papakura	NAT CHATTERTON 57.2%	LAB KANONGATA'A 27.3%	8,280	29.9%	85%	NAT 37.9%	NAT 30.4%Boundary change
Port Waikato	NAT PAUL 51.9%	LAB BRACHI 22.0%	10,158	29.9%	92%	NAT 38.1%	NAT 31.5%
Mt Maunganui	NAT RUTHERFORD 58.8%	LAB GREY 20.5%	13,766	38.2%	96%	NAT 38.7%	NAT 31.2%Boundary change
Waikato	NAT VAN DE MOLEN 58.5%	LAB TOKO 24.3%	12,091	34.2%	89%	NAT 39.7%	NAT 43.5%
Hamilton EastClose	NAT HAMILTON 45.1%	LAB DANSEY 44.8%	81	0.3%	92%	NAT 31.5%	NAT 13.5%
Hamilton West	NAT POTAKA 42.6%	LAB WILLIAMSON 35.9%	1,878	6.6%	87%	LAB 32.5%	NAT 17.0%
Tauranga	NAT UFFINDELL 55.7%	LAB TINETTI 25.5%	10,035	30.2%	95%	NAT 37.5%	NAT 26.0%Boundary change
East Cape	NAT KIRKPATRICK 49.1%	LAB LUXTON 33.2%	4,936	16.0%	85%	NAT 30.5%	NAT 8.0%
Rotorua	NAT MCCLAY 51.7%	LAB WANG 34.7%	5,034	17.0%	91%	NAT 32.6%	NAT 26.1%Boundary change
Taranaki-King Country	NAT KURIGER 53.0%	LAB PATTEMORE 20.0%	11,700	32.9%	92%	NAT 36.6%	NAT 35.1%Boundary change
Taupō	NAT UPSTON 60.9%	LAB FLATT 27.0%	11,682	33.9%	86%	NAT 36.3%	NAT 37.9%
Napier	NAT NIMON 52.3%	LAB HEDLEY 33.4%	6,389	18.9%	92%	NAT 34.4%	NAT 23.8%Boundary change
New Plymouth	NAT MACLEOD 56.3%	LAB CLINTON-GOHDES 35.8%	7,664	20.5%	96%	NAT 33.9%	NAT 16.3%
Whanganui	NAT BATES 53.0%	LAB ROBERTS 35.2%	6,248	17.8%	93%	NAT 30.4%	NAT 15.3%Boundary change
Tukituki	NAT WEDD 51.2%	LAB SCOTT 24.7%	8,641	26.5%	91%	NAT 34.1%	NAT 23.5%Boundary change
Rangitīkei	NAT REDMAYNE 44.3%	LAB SEVERINSEN 29.6%	4,892	14.7%	87%	NAT 30.6%	NAT 20.0%Boundary change
Palmerston North	LAB UTIKERE 48.0%	NAT BANSAL 40.0%	2,805	8.0%	97%	LAB 32.8%	LAB 3.5%Boundary change
WairarapaClosePotential flip	LAB MCANULTY 44.1%	NAT BUTTERICK 42.9%	401	1.2%	75%	NAT 30.8%	NAT 6.6%Boundary change
Kapiti	NAT COSTLEY 47.3%	LAB HANDFORD 43.0%	1,801	4.4%	87%	LAB 31.3%	NAT 9.0%Boundary change
Remutaka	LAB HIPKINS 57.2%	NAT LATEEF 19.5%	13,999	37.7%	90%	LAB 41.1%	LAB 20.5%Boundary change
NelsonPotential flip	NAT CAMERON 44.2%	LAB BOYACK 41.0%	1,210	3.2%	100%	LAB 29.0%	LAB 0.1%
Kenepuru	LAB EDMONDS 57.3%	NAT EVETTS 25.5%	8,370	31.7%	84%	LAB 42.8%	LAB 16.3%Boundary change
Wellington NorthPotential flip	GRN PAUL 40.1%	LAB VERRALL 31.9%	3,171	8.2%	86%	LAB 30.4%	LAB 0.5%Boundary change
Hutt SouthPotential flip	LAB ANDERSEN 45.6%	NAT BISHOP 42.9%	986	2.7%	88%	LAB 36.6%	NAT 2.5%Boundary change
Kaikōura	NAT SMITH 49.9%	LAB FLIGHT 27.9%	8,008	22.0%	98%	NAT 34.7%	NAT 27.2%
West Coast-Tasman	NAT MILNE 44.5%	LAB PATERSON 26.4%	6,443	18.0%	97%	NAT 29.8%	NAT 2.4%
Waimakariri	NAT DOOCEY 55.2%	LAB ROSEWARNE 29.4%	10,804	25.9%	87%	NAT 33.6%	NAT 28.0%
Selwyn	NAT GRIGG 56.5%	LAB GAUTAM 20.5%	13,860	36.0%	91%	NAT 36.6%	NAT 42.0%Boundary change
Christchurch East	LAB DAVIDSON 50.8%	NAT DAVIDS 26.4%	8,714	24.5%	86%	LAB 36.8%	LAB 7.4%Boundary change
Ilam	NAT CAMPBELL 50.5%	LAB JAMIESON 31.0%	6,190	19.4%	84%	NAT 35.3%	NAT 19.7%Boundary change
Christchurch Central	LAB HAMPTON 39.9%	NAT STEPHENS 32.4%	2,348	7.5%	87%	LAB 32.3%	LAB 7.5%Boundary change
WigramPotential flip	LAB YANZICK 44.6%	NAT SUMMERFIELD 39.0%	1,785	5.6%	87%	LAB 33.8%	NAT 7.2%Boundary change
Banks PeninsulaPotential flip	LAB MCLELLAN 43.3%	NAT WEENINK 37.9%	2,281	5.4%	87%	LAB 27.9%	NAT 0.8%
Rangitata	NAT MEAGER 62.4%	LAB MALAMA 23.4%	13,911	39.1%	97%	NAT 36.6%	NAT 26.8%
Wellington BaysClosePotential flip	LAB RENNEY 37.6%	GRN GENTER 37.3%	121	0.3%	91%	LAB 34.2%	GRN 8.6%Boundary change
Waitaki	NAT ANDERSON 50.1%	LAB O'CONNOR 28.9%	8,353	21.2%	98%	NAT 36.7%	NAT 27.5%
Southland	NAT MOONEY 56.4%	LAB MCDONALD 23.0%	11,365	33.5%	97%	NAT 39.0%	NAT 43.5%Boundary change
Dunedin	LAB BROOKING 46.1%	GRN HERNANDEZ 21.2%	8,201	25.0%	95%	LAB 33.2%	LAB 18.9%
Taieri	LAB LEARY 42.4%	NAT FRENCH 31.3%	3,788	11.1%	94%	LAB 33.4%	LAB 3.4%
Invercargill	NAT SIMMONDS 59.2%	LAB LEE 30.7%	9,316	28.5%	97%	NAT 33.5%	NAT 27.6%Boundary change
Te Tai TokerauClose	TPM EDWARDS 30.5%	GRN LYNDON 28.9%	403	1.6%	83%	LAB 44.3%	TPM 1.9%
Tāmaki Makaurau	TPM KAIPARA 54.4%	LAB LEONI 24.1%	6,303	30.3%	75%	LAB 48.0%	TPM 0.2%
Hauraki-Waikato	TPM MAIPI-CLARKE 68.5%	LAB KIRIONA 28.9%	9,770	39.6%	88%	LAB 50.5%	TPM 11.6%
Waiariki	TPM WAITITI 45.0%	GRN WAIKATO 37.7%	2,002	7.3%	90%	LAB 46.5%	TPM 54.9%
Te Tai Hauāuru	TPM NGAREWA-PACKER 55.4%	LAB KĀTENE 40.6%	3,759	14.8%	92%	LAB 46.6%	TPM 35.1%
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti	LAB TANGAERE-MANUEL 42.5%	TPM MAXWELL 32.6%	2,412	9.9%	83%	LAB 54.8%	LAB 9.8%Boundary change
Te Tai TongaPotential flip	LAB RAMSDEN 33.3%	GRN TE MORENGA 22.5%	2,705	10.8%	96%	LAB 40.5%	TPM 10.1%Boundary change

71 electorates